Conservative Party

John A. Macdonald

The Conservative Party in Canada took its values and traditions from its namesake in Britain. In the 19th Century, British Conservatives, also known as Tories, were loyal to the monarchy and the Church of England. They generally believed in upholding tradition rather than embracing change. (See Conservatism.) Canadian Conservatives were also influenced by other political strains. One of the earliest was Liberal influences during the 1854 Liberal-Conservative coalition that governed the Province of Canada.

John A. Macdonald entered the 1854 coalition as a moderate Conservative. He shaped the Liberal-Conservative Party that pioneered Confederation. As Canada's first prime minister, Macdonald built a party committed to Confederation and to a policy of national economic development. (See National Policy.) The party's hyphenated name symbolized Macdonald's belief in balance and moderation. It also emphasized what Canadians held in common while obscuring matters where they were divided. Macdonald managed to bring together, under a single party, ultramontane Roman Catholics from Quebec, Tories, Orangemen and businessmen from all four founding provinces. By 1872, however, the many parts of the expanding nation had become too different to patch together. That year, Macdonald's Conservatives won 103 seats to 97 for the opposition Liberals. However, his majority did not hold. His government fell in 1873.

The Pacific Scandal that brought down Macdonald's government indicated the problems of his approach. The Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR) was essential to his nation-building dream. However, its construction — and similar development policies — linked the government too closely with private interests that did not always serve the public interest. In opposition, Macdonald became convinced that his party should represent something more than simply the support of Canada. By then, the party had dropped the Liberal-Conservative label in favour of Conservative.

In the 1878 election campaign, Macdonald committed his party to the National Policy. It stressed trade protectionism, expansion in the West and an assertive central government. (See also Federalism in Canada.) This appealed to Ontario and Quebec manufacturers and to those who feared United States expansionism. (See Manifest Destiny.) A strong pro-British message was added to the Conservative platform. The effectiveness of this approach was proven by Macdonald's re-election in 1882, 1887 and 1891.

Macdonald complemented the National Policy with shrewd and lavish patronage and a willingness to compromise. However, compromise evaded him in the case of Louis Riel after the 1885 North-West Rebellion. Riel's execution, along with weak leadership among Quebec Conservatives, led to a decline in support there. Macdonald's reaction to Riel followed from his centralist perspective, which kept provinces and local interests in the background. The result was that the provinces became increasingly Liberal and supported the provincial-rights stand of Liberal leader Wilfrid Laurier.

After Macdonald's death in 1891, his party could not endure attacks on so many fronts. The Conservative governments of John Abbott, John Thompson, Mackenzie Bowell and Charles Tupper struggled to maintain supremacy. Language and religious problems (see Manitoba Schools Question) and patronage issues in Quebec proved to be great obstacles. The Conservatives lost the 1896 election. They did not regain their pre-eminence for many years.

Robert Borden

Nova Scotia lawyer Robert Borden led the federal Conservatives from 1901 to 1920. He sought to push the party beyond Macdonald’s legacy. He experimented with a Quebec lieutenant and advocated civil service reform and public ownership. He lost the elections of 1904 and 1908. To win in 1911, Borden returned to the Conservatives’ roots. He emphasized the National Policy and the imperial connection. This won the party support in Ontario, British Columbia and parts of the Maritimes.

In Quebec, the Conservatives allied themselves with anti-Laurier francophone nationalists. The Conservatives won the election, but the imperialist-nationalist coalition collapsed. By 1913, nationalists in Borden’s caucus were bitterly disillusioned with his siding with the more numerous anglophone imperialists, who were eager to support Britain and the Empire.

The 1917 wartime election was critical for Canadian conservatism. To ensure that his conscription policy was upheld, Borden made an alliance with conscriptionist Liberals. The resulting Union Government triumphed, but the victory created lasting resentment among French Canadians. After the First World War, Liberals deserted the coalition. This left the Conservative Party with a narrower base than ever before. In addition, the nationalization of the Grand Trunk and Canadian Northern railways caused the defection of the Montreal business community. It was probably the party's greatest source of funds.

Arthur Meighen

Arthur Meighen, Borden's successor, immediately tried to shape the remnants of unionism into conservatism. In the 1921 election, the Conservatives finished third with 50 seats, behind the Progressive Party and the Liberals. Meighen's support of conscription meant the loss of francophone support. In Western Canada, Progressives identified more readily with Liberals, since they associated Conservatives with the despised National Policy. Meighen served briefly as prime minister in 1926, but a Liberal majority soon returned. (See King-Byng Affair.) Conservatives were too closely linked with Britain at a time when Canada's Britishness — and its status as an imperial Dominion — was disappearing. Meighen also did not manage to adapt the National Policy to postwar economic conditions.

R.B. Bennett

In 1927, R.B. Bennett, a wealthy Calgary businessman, succeeded Meighen as Conservative leader. In 1930 he won a majority, including 25 seats in Quebec. The Great Depression created the climate for Bennett's victory. It also ensured his defeat five years later. Bennett’s initial response to the Depression was a characteristically Conservative attempt to protect industry and obtain imperial trade advantages. It did not work. In 1935, he changed course and called for many social reforms to help poor and struggling Canadians. However, these proposals came too late to be convincing. (See Bennett's New Deal.) Many reformist Conservatives had already left to join the Reconstruction Party founded by former Bennett minister Henry Stevens. Two new parties on the political right and the left — Social Credit and the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) — also appealed to English Canada. The 1935 election brought about the worst Conservative defeat to that date. The party took only 40 seats against the Liberals’ 173.

The Conservatives struggled to rebuild a successful coalition. The anger of French Canada endured, even though in 1938 the party chose as its leader Robert J. Manion. He had opposed conscription, was Catholic and had married a French Canadian. His attempts to conciliate Quebec only angered anglophone colleagues, now that the Second World War had begun. Party funds were depleted, and the organization atrophied. In 1940, the Conservatives again won only 40 seats. Manion's defeat turned the party back toward Arthur Meighen — again without success.

Progressive Conservative Party (PC)

Encouraged by Arthur Meighen, Manitoba premier John Bracken, a Progressive Party member with no Conservative experience, sought and won the 1942 Conservative leadership. The organization’s name was changed to the Progressive Conservative Party (PC). It attempted to shift left. But the CCF and the Liberals were also moving left.

In 1944, the Conservatives were caught up again in the Second World War pro-conscription movement. Liberal prime minister William Lyon Mackenzie King had brought in conscription. But the Conservatives’ enthusiasm for it ensured that they would bear the blame. In the 1945 election, they could not even find candidates for most Quebec ridings. Meanwhile, on the Prairies, the PCs came fourth behind the CCF, Liberals and Social Credit.

John Diefenbaker

With their poor showings in the West and in Quebec, the PCs were becoming an Ontario party. In 1948, former Ontario premier George Drew was chosen as leader. Drew was unable to broaden the party's appeal. After two disastrous defeats in 1949 and 1953, the party decided to gamble on John Diefenbaker. He was a westerner, a populist and a remarkable showman. Diefenbaker offered both fiery leadership and a visionary program. He excited Canadians, lulled as they were by two decades of Liberal administration. In 1957, Diefenbaker won a minority. The next year, he astonished Canadians by winning 208 out of 265 seats, including 50 from Quebec. (See Elections of 1957 and 1958.) For the first time since 1911, the Conservatives were truly a national party.

Despite strong Quebec support, Diefenbaker could not come to terms with Canada’s bicultural nature. His policy initiatives seemed eclectic rather than parts of a larger vision. In 1962, Diefenbaker lost his majority. In 1963, his government fell to the Liberals. His populism had lost much business support, and it now lacked support generally, especially in urban areas. Once again, French Canada shunned the PCs. Diefenbaker's forced removal as leader in September 1967 damaged party unity. His successor, former Nova Scotia premier Robert Stanfield, was left to try to heal the wounds.

Joe Clark

The PCs had enduring support in Western Canada and considerable provincial-level popularity. This was especially true in Ontario, where the party was in power from 1943 to 1985. By 1979, provincial PC wings were governing in Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Newfoundland. In spite of this national appeal, Stanfield was unable to lead the federal party to power. In 1972, he came within three seats of defeating Liberal prime minister Pierre Trudeau.

In 1976, Joe Clark, an Albertan, became federal PC leader. In May 1979, Clark led the PCs to a minority government. However, they fell to a confidence vote in the House of Commons in December and lost the February 1980 election. (See Elections of 1979 and 1980.)

Brian Mulroney

The 1980 defeat brought Joe Clark’s leadership into question. In 1983, the party rejected Clark and chose the bilingual Quebecer Brian Mulroney as its leader. Although Mulroney lacked any parliamentary experience, he possessed superb organizational skills and a deep knowledge of his native province. The PCs, so often fractious, united behind the new leader as he faced Liberal prime minister Pierre Trudeau’s successor, John Turner, in the 1984 federal election. Mulroney took the western base of the party and fused it with a renewed support among Quebec nationalists who were disillusioned with Trudeau's federalism. The PCs won the largest landslide majority in Canadian history, winning 50 per cent of the popular vote and 211 of 282 seats, including 58 of 75 ridings in Quebec.

Although plagued by resignations and scandals, the Mulroney Conservatives implemented much of their business agenda. They privatized crown corporations and arranged a free trade deal with the United States. (See NAFTA.) However, the failure to achieve its goal of a new federalism through constitutional negotiations (see Meech Lake Accord; Charlottetown Accord), and an inability to reduce the public debt or raise Canada out of a persistent recession, eroded the party’s support in its second term. Mulroney's personal popularity fell to lower levels than for any previous prime minister.

Splintering of the Party

The Progressive Conservatives began to splinter under Brian Mulroney in the late 1980s. In 1987, Preston Manning formed the right-wing, populist Reform Party under the slogan “The West wants in.” Manning led the party to a respectable showing in Alberta in the 1988 federal election. Weaknesses in Quebec also emerged when Mulroney's friend and Cabinet colleague Lucien Bouchard resigned in disagreement over proposed changes to the Meech Lake Accord. Several Conservative MPs from Quebec followed him. They formed another new party, the Bloc Québécois.

In 1993, the Mulroney coalition disintegrated under the new PC leader, Prime Minister Kim Campbell. She made several campaign gaffes and was unable to distance herself from the Mulroney regime. Quebec supporters turned to Lucien Bouchard and the Bloc Québécois. Western supporters turned to the Reform Party. The election resulted in the most devastating defeat in the history of Canadian politics. The PCs won only two seats in the Commons and lost official party status.

In 1995, Jean Charest became the first French Canadian ever to head the Conservatives. The youthful Charest was seen as the key to rebuilding the party. In the 1997 federal election, the Tories won 20 seats and regained official status in Parliament. Despite this progress, Charest left the federal PCs in 1998 to replace Daniel Johnson as leader of the Quebec Liberal Party. Charest's replacement was Joe Clark. He returned to active politics and easily won the Tory leadership.

In 1999, the United Alternative (UA), a coalition effort begun by the Reform Party, decided to unite the conservative parties. The goal was to try and make political inroads against the federal Liberals. The PC Party refused to participate in the UA movement. However, the movement continued with the backing of some Ontario PC members and a handful of Toronto businesspeople.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Alliance was formed in 2000 with former Alberta treasurer Stockwell Day as its leader. In that year's election, Day led the party to 66 seats. Clark’s PCs barely held on to official party status with 12 seats — mostly in Atlantic Canada. Clark's strategy of rebuilding the PCs on the base of a crumbling Canadian Alliance had failed.

Conservative Party of Canada

In May 2000, the PCs chose Peter MacKay as their new leader. MacKay won the job by vowing not to pursue a merger with the Canadian Alliance, in defiance of increasing calls to “unite the right.” Weeks later, he broke his promise and entered into merger talks with the Alliance, by this time under the leadership of Stephen Harper. A merger agreement was reached. It was ratified overwhelmingly in December 2003 in separate votes by the memberships of both parties. The amalgamated Conservative Party of Canada came into existence in December 2003. Harper was elected as its first leader the following year.

Provincial Progressive Conservative parties, many of them still competitive in various provinces, maintained the PC brand. But they tended to support the new Conservative Party federally.

The federal merger was bitterly opposed in some quarters, especially among traditional Tory Conservatives. Joe Clark and other PC MPs left the party. They believed the merger was less a union of equals than a takeover by the Canadian Alliance. The decision to drop the term “Progressive” from the party’s name was viewed as more than symbolic. To some, the new Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) seemed more like the American Republicans than the traditional Tories.

Stephen Harper

With the newly formed Conservative Party of Canada, Canada’s political right wing was united for the first time in a decade. In the 2004 election, the Conservatives took 99 seats, including important victories in vote-rich Ontario. This was enough to form the Official Opposition.

Late the following year, Paul Martin’s minority Liberal government fell. Stephn Harper led the Conservatives to a minority government in the 2006 election. Many observers saw the results as the start of a long-term shift in political power to the Western provinces, especially Alberta, Harper's electoral home.

Harper's government continued Canada's combat mission in Afghanistan; cut taxes; scuttled Canada's support for the Kyoto Protocol on global warming; and pursued Senate reform. It also passed a law creating fixed future election dates. Meanwhile, the Harper regime was criticized for being overly confrontational and partisan in dealing with other parties in the House of Commons, as well as secretive and controlling in its dealings with the media.

In the summer of 2008, Harper ignored his own fixed-date election law and called an election for October. The Conservatives were re-elected with a second minority government. They held onto power through a failed bid by the opposition parties, in the wake of the election, to form a Liberal-New Democrat coalition government supported by the Bloc Québécois.

In their second term, the Harper Conservatives were forced to respond to the recession brought about by the 2008 global financial crisis. Massive economic stimulus spending was announced, including a multi-billion-dollar bailout of the auto industry. This created large federal deficits. The Conservatives also advanced “tough on crime” measures and targeted tax breaks. They also ended the mandatory long form census.

In 2011, the Conservatives were found in contempt of Parliament for refusing to provide cost estimates on various programs. As a result, they were defeated on a non-confidence vote, which led to a federal election. The Conservatives campaigned on a platform of economic stability in uncertain times. In May, the party emerged with its long-sought majority, winning 166 of 308 seats. Harper appeared in good position to advance the cause of embedding conservative principles and policies at the heart of Canada’s political system.

2011 Mandate

In the summer of 2008, Harper ignored his own fixed-date election law and called an election for October. The Conservatives were re-elected with a second minority government. They held onto power through a failed bid by the opposition parties, in the wake of the election, to form a Liberal-New Democrat coalition government supported by the Bloc Québécois.

In their second term, the Harper Conservatives were forced to respond to the recession brought about by the 2008 global financial crisis. Massive economic stimulus spending was announced, including a multi-billion-dollar bailout of the auto industry. This created large federal deficits. The Conservatives also advanced “tough on crime” measures and targeted tax breaks. They also ended the mandatory long form census.

In 2011, the Conservatives were found in contempt of Parliament for refusing to provide cost estimates on various programs. As a result, they were defeated on a non-confidence vote, which led to a federal election. The Conservatives campaigned on a platform of economic stability in uncertain times. In May, the party emerged with its long-sought majority, winning 166 of 308 seats. Harper appeared in good position to advance the cause of embedding conservative principles and policies at the heart of Canada’s political system.

2015 Defeat

By mid-2015, the CPC was in full campaign mode, preparing for an October election. Support remained weak in Quebec. But the Conservatives had succeeded in appealing to important groups of voters once loyal to the Liberals. These included suburban Canadians in southern Ontario and immigrant communities of all kinds.

For the first time in decades, however, questions were being raised about a possible voting shift among core Conservative loyalists in the West. This was especially true in Alberta, where 44 years of PC government had been brought to an end by an NDP majority victory in the provincial election in May 2015. The Canadian economy was stagnating and the Alberta oil industry was experiencing deep cuts as a result of low worldwide oil and commodity prices. It was difficult to predict whether the federal Conservatives’ claim — that they were the country's best economic stewards — would convince Canadians to give them a fourth national mandate.

The federal election in October revealed that after nine years of Stephen Harper’s rule, despite a final return to balanced budgets, Canadians were ready for change. The Liberals under Justin Trudeau won a majority government. They defeated the Conservatives, who returned to the status of Official Opposition in the House of Commons. Harper resigned as Conservative leader. Former cabinet minister Rona Ambrose became interim party leader.

2016 Leadership Contest

The race to replace Stephen Harper began in earnest in 2016. The vote was scheduled for May 2017. Fourteen candidates appeared on the ballot, including Andrew Scheer, former Speaker of the House of Commons; Maxime Bernier, former minister of foreign affairs and minister of industry; Erin O’Toole, former minister of veterans affairs; and Member of Parliament Brad Trost. Television personality and businessman Kevin O’Leary joined the leadership contest in January 2017. He withdrew before the May vote, despite multiple polls that indicated he was a front runner.

Major issues in the leadership campaign included continuity with the core values of the previous Conservative government; the role of social conservatives in the party; and issues of supply management and immigration. Bernier, who was neck and neck with O’Leary in April, sought to take the party in a more libertarian direction. Scheer, a social conservative, promised to continue the policies of the Conservative government under Harper.

On 27 May 2017, Scheer was elected leader. He defeated Bernier after all other candidates had dropped off in the party’s ranked ballot system. It was a narrow victory — Scheer took 50.95 per cent of the available points under the rules of the balloting system. He defeated Bernier by a count of 62,593 votes to 55,544. Scheer’s election demonstrated the strength of social conservatives in the Conservative Party. He was widely seen as a safer choice than Bernier.

In August 2018, Bernier quit the Conservative caucus. He called the party “morally corrupt” and said that it had abandoned its principles. Bernier founded a new party, the People’s Party of Canada. He announced a plan to run a full slate of candidates in the 2019 federal election. Scheer and other Conservative MPs accused Bernier of putting his personal profile ahead of the party.

Official Opposition, 2015–Present

As the Official Opposition, the Conservatives focused most of their criticism on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The party and its provincial allies were particularly critical of Trudeau’s introduction of the carbon tax. Federal Conservatives vowed to repeal the tax if elected in October 2019. The Conservatives also accused Trudeau of mishandling the purchase and construction of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project and failing to stand up to US president Donald Trump in trade negotiations. (See Canada and NAFTA.) They also protested Trudeau’s decision to compensate Omar Khadr.

Throughout 2019, much of the Conservatives’ criticism focused on Trudeau’s role in the SNC-Lavalin affair. Conservative leaders accused Trudeau of political interference in the case. They called for broader inquiries by the ethics commissioner and RCMP. The party also released a series of platform documents and vision statements in advance of the 2019 general election. In September 2019, it became the first party to announce a full slate of candidates.

2019 Federal Election

The Conservatives won 121 seats in the federal election held on 21 October 2019. The party increased its presence in the House of Commons and won the popular vote. It received over 34 per cent compared to the Liberals at 33 per cent. Support for the Conservatives rose in most provinces, particularly in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba. However, this was not the case in Quebec and Ontario. Significantly, the Liberals captured most ridings in the Greater Toronto Area, as they had in 2015. The Conservative share of the vote dropped in that region. Overall, the Liberals won 157 seats, enough to give them a minority government. The Conservative Party remained the Official Opposition.

2020 Leadership Contest

Immediately following the 2019 election, Andrew Scheer faced criticism from within his party for failing to unseat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Many saw the Liberal leader as extremely vulnerable following the SNC-Lavalin affair. This was compounded by revelations during the campaign that Trudeau had worn blackface on more than one occasion. Peter MacKay said that Scheer’s election loss was “like having a breakaway on an open net and missing the net.” Calls for Scheer’s resignation intensified. On 12 December, he announced that he would step down. He remained as leader until a leadership convention was held on 27 June 2020.

The leadership was contested by four candidates: Peter MacKay, Erin O’Toole, backbencher Derek Sloan and Toronto lawyer Leslyn Lewis. Sloan had become the first Seventh Day Adventist to be elected to the House of Commons when he was elected to the Ontario riding of Hastings—Lennox and Addington in 2019. He quickly marginalized himself with comments that were widely seen as racist and homophobic. The unilingual Lewis sought to reopen the debate on abortion. She also became the first Black woman to run for the leadership of the Conservative Party.

The contest effectively became a two-person race between MacKay and O’Toole. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the convention was postponed and the voting was conducted by mail. More than 170,000 ballots were cast, and the results were delayed for several hours due to a malfunction with a mail-sorting machine. On 23 August, O’Toole was named leader of the CPC after winning 57 per cent of the vote on the third ballot.

Official Opposition, 2020–21

Erin O’Toole’s first months as leader were overshadowed by the dual crises of the pandemic and the resulting economic downturn. He worked to unite the party and to present it as a government-in-waiting. He also made efforts to open the party to groups that had sometimes complained about feeling unwelcome or ignored by the Conservatives. These included francophone Quebecers, 2SLGBTQ2+ people, and those who feared that the Conservatives would place new limitations on abortion rights.

While O’Toole worked to build the party and introduce himself to Canadians, his efforts were often frustrated by the restrictions on travel and in-person gatherings made necessary by the pandemic. Furthermore, the new People’s Party of Canada (PPC) advocated policies to the right of the Conservatives. The PPC began to attract many Conservative voters from the far right.

2021 Election

On 15 August 2021, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called an election for 20 September. Erin O’Toole released a 160-page Conservative Party platform. Promises included action on climate change, a tax credit to support child care, sustained funding for health care, and support for businesses recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.

At the beginning of the campaign, Trudeau and the Liberals had a comfortable lead in the polls. However, Stephen Maher wrote in Maclean’s that, “if O’Toole keeps pitching himself as a policy nerd with a detailed plan, swing voters might buy what he is selling.” By the middle of the 36-day campaign, that appeared to come to fruition. An Ipsos poll on 8 September showed 35 per cent support for O’Toole’s Conservatives compared to 32 per cent for the Liberals. O’Toole performed well in two French and one English televised leaders’ debates. He also began pitching himself more as a centrist than a conservative. He reversed his opposition to Trudeau’s carbon pricing policy; distanced himself from social conservative views on abortion and 2SLGBTQ2+ issues; and backed down on a promise to undo the Liberal’s ban on certain assault weapons. (See Gun Control.)

In the campaign’s final week, however, the momentum shifted once more. O’Toole was unable to effectively defend the decision by an unspecified number of Conservative candidates to go unvaccinated. He was further hurt when COVID-19 infection rates and hospitalizations spiked dramatically in Alberta. O’Toole refused to even acknowledge that he had previously praised the province’s pandemic response, led by United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney.

When the votes were counted, the Liberals again won a minority government and the Conservatives remained in second place as the Official Opposition. Conservative candidates across the country earned over 186,000 more votes than Liberal candidates. But Liberal votes were concentrated in urban areas with more ridings, giving the Liberal Party more seats. The final seat count was 159 for the Liberals (up two from 2019) and 119 for the Conservatives (down two from 2019). The People’s Party of Canada won no seats but siphoned enough votes from Conservative candidates to cost the Conservative Party around 20 seats. Bernier and Kenney received credit and blame, respectively, for the Conservative’s loss.

Opposition Party, 2021–22

After the election, Erin O’Toole announced that he would stay on as leader and continue his work to build the party. However, while many pundits applauded his shift to the centre as both necessary to win a majority and the reason for the party’s breakthrough in Atlantic Canada, many within the party felt betrayed by his flip-flopping on key Conservative policies. A member of the Conservative Party’s national council began an online petition demanding a referendum on O’Toole’s leadership. As of 24 September, it had garnered more than 2,700 signatures.

Internal opposition to O’Toole’s leadership continued to mount through the fall and winter. Several electoral district associations, as well as senator Denise Batters, called for a confidence vote to be held on O’Toole’s leadership within six months, rather than at the party’s next convention in 2023. In mid-November, O’Toole removed Batters from caucus a day after she circulated a petition calling for the vote.

However, on 31 January 2022, amid the anti-vaccine “Freedom Convoy” protest in Ottawa that seemed to energize Canada’s far right, Conservative caucus chair Scott Reid announced that he had received written requests for a leadership review from more than 20 per cent of caucus members. He also said that a secret ballot on O’Toole’s leadership would be held as early as 2 February. In response, O’Toole said in a statement on Facebook: “There are two roads open to the Conservative Party of Canada. One is… angry, negative, and extreme. It is a dead-end; one that would see the party of Confederation become the NDP of the right. The other road is to better reflect the Canada of 2022. To recognize that conservatism is organic not static and that a winning message is one of inclusion, optimism, ideas and hope… It’s time for a reckoning. To settle this in caucus. Right here. Right now. Once and for all. Anger vs. Optimism. That is the choice in simple terms.”

When the ballots were cast in the 118-member caucus vote on 2 February, 45 MPs endorsed O’Toole’s leadership and 73 voted in favour of his removal. O’Toole resigned as leader after the vote, effective immediately. Candice Bergen, the MP for Portage-Lisgar since 2008, was voted interim leader later that day. O'Toole continued to serve as an MP until resigning at the end of Parliament’s 2023 spring session.

2022 Leadership Contest

The main leadership contenders in the 2022 campaign were long-time MP and former Stephen Harper cabinet minister Pierre Poilievre, former Quebec premier Jean Charest and Brampton mayor Patrick Brown. Throughout his campaign, Poilievre said that he was running not for the leadership of the Conservative Party but to become prime minister, so that he could make Canadians freer. Poilievre unreservedly supported the “Freedom Convoy” protest. On 28 January, he had himself filmed with protest leaders in Ottawa and said that they represent “the people who want to stand and speak for their freedoms.”

Polls indicated that Poilievre was the front-runner throughout the leadership campaign. His crowds at over 80 campaign events were large and polls showed a growing lead over other Charest and Brown. In July 2022, Brown was disqualified from the race for allegedly committing “serious wrongdoing” in violation of the Canada Elections Act. Brown countered by accusing Conservative party officials of “wanting to make sure Poilievre did not lose.” (In late 2024, CSIS determined that agents from the Indian government had interfered in Brown’s leadership campaign.) Meanwhile, the Poilievre campaign sold 311,958 party memberships. It was an astounding figure, given that Andrew Scheer had won the party leadership in 2017 after selling fewer than 10,000.

By the time Poilievre won the Conservative Party leadership on 10 September 2022 — on the first ballot with 68.2 per cent of the vote — his victory was seen as a foregone conclusion. In his victory speech, Poilievre said that Canadians “need a prime minister who hears them and offers them hope that they can again afford to buy a home, a car, pay their bills, afford food, have a secure retirement and, god forbid, even achieve their dreams if they work hard.”

Official Opposition, 2022–Present

On 13 September 2022, Pierre Poilievre announced his nine-member team that would lead the Official Opposition. He said its primary job was to stop the government’s proposed tax hikes and end inflation. He dubbed it “Justinflation” in an effort to pin the blame on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

As leader of the Opposition, Poilievre pounded away relentlessly at Trudeau and the Liberal Party’s policies. Claims that “Canada is broken” and that Poilievre and the Conservatives were the only ones who could fix it became Conservative Party gospel. Hopes that Trudeau’s second minority government might crumble quickly were tempered by the supply-and-confidence agreement that the Liberals struck with the NDP in March 2022. The NDP agreed to support the Liberal government in all confidence motions until June 2025 in exchange for Liberal support of NDP policies such as dental care and pharmacare.

The agreement kept the Conservatives on the sidelines. But Poilievre capitalized by tarring the Liberals and NDP with the same brush. With Canada in the grip of a post-pandemic malaise and worsening inflation, the Liberals and NDP sank in public opinion polls while the Conservatives steadily rose. By August 2023, Poilievre had climbed to a 10-point lead over Trudeau in the polls. He repeatedly called for a “carbon tax election” so that his party could “axe the tax” —namely Trudeau’s carbon tax.

In early 2024, a scandal erupted around the Trudeau government’s ArriveCan app for border crossings, introduced in 2020. It was supposed to cost $80,000 but wound up costing a staggering $60 million. Poilievre pointed to it as proof that the Liberals were wasteful and incompetent.

By September 2024, Poilievre’s conflation of the Liberals and the NDP proved so effective that NDP leader Jagmeet Singh “ripped up” the supply-and-confidence agreement. By the end of 2024, Poilievre and the Conservatives had a commanding lead of more than 20 points in the polls. A large majority government in an impending election seemed almost certain.

However, on 6 January 2025, a beleaguered Trudeau announced his resignation. Two weeks later, newly inaugurated US president Donald Trump began his second term by threatening a trade war with Canada with the stated goal of annexing it as the 51st state. Nationalism in Canada soared, and concerns over the country’s sovereignty grew.

On 14 March 2025, former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney became the new Liberal leader and prime minister. His first move was to scrap the consumer carbon tax, thereby eliminating the signature issue that Poilievre had built his platform around. With the ground shifting rapidly beneath him, Poilievre struggled to find his footing. His claim that “Canada is broken” and his repeated calls for a “carbon tax election” no longer fit the national narrative. Furthermore, his right-wing stance, his similarities to Trump in style and rhetoric, and his affinity for Trump’s “freedom”-minded MAGA movement suddenly appeared to strongly work against him.

2025 Election

On 24 March 2025, when Prime Minister Carney called a snap election for 28 April, the polls had the Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat. But the momentum continued to be in the Liberals’ favour. A poll issued by 338Canada on 28 March showed the Liberals with 41 per cent support nationally compared to 37 per cent for the Conservatives. Even more troubling, the Liberals held a 15-point lead in vote-rich Ontario.

Throughout the campaign, Pierre Poilievre had to continually explain why he refused to get security clearance — and undergo the rigorous background check it entails. He said it was so he could speak freely about the issues and not be “muzzled” by being unable to discuss confidential matters. Poilievre also had to contend with allegations from CSIS, made public on 25 March, that agents from India tried to interfere in the 2022 Conservative leadership campaign, which Poilievre won. He responded by insisting he had “won the leadership fair and square.”

Poilievre also came under fire from other conservatives. Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke, the campaign manager for Ontario premier Doug Ford, accused Poilievre’s team of “campaign malpractice” for blowing a 25-point lead and falling 10 points behind. Teneycke told the Toronto Star on 10 April that unless Poilievre and the Conservatives “get on it quick, they are going to get obliterated.” When Poilievre reached out to Ford on 17 March for the first time since becoming federal Conservative leader two and a half years earlier, Ford had advised him to focus his campaign on Trump and tariffs. Writing in the Hamilton Spectator, political commentator Craig Wallace also said that Poilievre “needs to turn his ‘attack dog’ personality on Donald Trump.”

But Poilievre and his campaign chose to double down on law-and-order and cost-of-living issues rather than pivot to address the threats posed by Trump. Instead, emphasizing the effects of “the lost Liberal decade” and the potential dangers of granting the Liberals a fourth consecutive government became the new party gospel. Poilievre proposed an American-style “three-strikes-and-you’re-out” law for maximum life imprisonment and vowed to implement his tough-on-crime agenda by using the notwithstanding clause to override certain Charter rights. He also unveiled a “Boots Not Suits” plan to increase training and financial support for people in the skilled trades. The plan was endorsed by several trade unions across the country.

Conservative attempts to preach that gospel were somewhat undermined by Poilievre’s restrictive control over his caucus members, who were not allowed to talk to the press, and his adversarial relationship with the media. Poilievre’s campaign banned reporters from travelling with the campaign team, as is customary, and limited the number of questions that could be asked of Poilievre at each appearance to four. Poilievre and his campaign manager, Jenni Byrne, drew criticism for what the CBC called “the party’s iron grip on message control.”

But their strategy did appear to bear fruit eventually. By the final week of the campaign, the issue of affordability and cost of living surpassed Canada-US relations and Canadian sovereignty as the top-ranked election issue. As a result, the Conservatives managed to close the gap with the Liberals in the polls. However, Poilievre’s favourability ratings remained low. One week before the election, the Angus Reid Institute pegged his overall favourability at 38 per cent — a high-water mark for him — compared to 54 per cent for Carney. Also in the final week, the Poilievre campaign began to pour party resources into his riding, which he had held since 2004, out of fear that he might lose.

Many pre-election polls predicted a Liberal majority government, but come election day, the Conservatives fared better than expected. The party increased its seat total by 23 — more than any other party. In the end, the election proved to be a two-way race. The Liberals and Conservatives combined for 85.1 per cent of the vote. The Liberals won 170 seats (2 short of a majority) with 43.8 per cent of the vote, while the Conservatives received 41.3 per cent and 143 seats. It was the largest share of the popular vote for the Conservative Party since the 1988 election. It was also the first election since the 1930s that two parties both finished with more than 40 per cent of the vote. Voter turnout was a robust 68.7 per cent, the highest since 1993 but still lower than some pundits had predicted, given the high-stakes nature of the election.
But while the Conservatives moderately exceeded expectations, Poilievre fell short in his own riding, losing to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy by about 6 points.

2025 Election Aftermath

Immediately after the election, the long-simmering feud between Canada’s federal Conservatives and provincial Progressive Conservatives boiled over. While the votes were still being counted in his riding, re-elected Conservative MP Jamil Jivani lashed out at Ontario premier Doug Ford, accusing him of sabotaging the election and “being a hype man to the Liberal Party.” Ford responded, “Last time I checked, Pierre Poilievre never came out in our election [on 27 February]. Matter of fact, he… or one of his lieutenants told every one of his members, don’t you dare go out and help the PCs. Isn’t that ironic?” The day after the election, Tim Houston, the Progressive Conservative premier of Nova Scotia, said “I think the Conservative Party of Canada was very good at pushing people away, not so good at pulling people in…. I hope they do some soul searching.”

Contrary to Houston’s comments, however, the Conservatives did manage to pull some new constituents into the party. The CPC made significant gains among younger, multi-ethnic and working-class voters, although it remained significantly under water in support among women and older voters. The Conservatives managed to flip 14 ridings from the Liberals and 11 from the NDP. This included 7 from the Liberals in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and four from the NDP in each of Ontario and BC. The breakthrough in the GTA alone, where Poilievre’s focus on crime proved to be a decisive factor, was enough to deny the Liberals a majority. And many observers credited Poilievre’s “Boots Not Suits” plan with helping to convert blue collar voters from the NDP, particularly in Ontario and BC.

As the dust settled, the most pressing issue for the Conservative Party was whether to keep Poilievre as leader. Some questioned whether he had enough appeal to push his party over the finish line, especially since his mirroring of Trump had gone from being an advantage with conservatives to a liability with much of the rest of the country. As a “veteran party source” told the Toronto Star about Poilievre, “He’s divisive. He’s polarizing. He’s so aggressive. And he drove people that would have ordinarily voted for other political parties to the Liberal party. That’s not a winning strategy for us.” In his post-election analysis, Dan Letts of the Winnipeg Free Press asked, “Can Pierre, the angry Tory attack dog, learn to stop scaring the neighbourhood?” Meanwhile, in reference to the party’s communications clampdown, the Hub wondered, “Can the Conservative Party loosen up and let the public in?”

But with several electoral gains to show for and, perhaps most importantly, no clear challenger within the party, Poilievre’s leadership appeared to be safe. On 6 May, the Conservative Party announced that it had chosen former leader Andrew Scheer to serve as interim leader of the Opposition while Poilievre seeks to gain a seat in Parliament in a by-election in the Alberta riding of Battle River—Crowfoot. Scheer said that Poilievre should “absolutely” remain as leader and credited him with the party’s “historic gains” in the election. As Matt Gurney echoed in the Toronto Star, “Poilievre got a bigger share of the vote this time than did the last five PMs to win a majority. So I can get why Tories might want to stay the course and write this one off as a fluke. They could be right.”